These California districts voted big for Biden, but Republicans are optimistic about their chances there.
A survey of GOP voters and elected officials in four major California districts, including four counties where Republicans made up a majority of voters, showed that if the special election in the race’s leadoff contest was in September, “Democrats and Republicans remain roughly evenly matched on who stands to win” in those races. For example, in the San Diego County district, the survey — conducted late last week by a Democratic-leaning polling firm called MRC Action — gives Democrats a 50 percent to 41 percent chance of winning the general election and Republicans a 50 percent to 40 percent chance. The survey was conducted among people registered to vote in that district, as well as by people who are registered but did not vote in the past.
In the San Diego county seat of El Cajon, Republicans are essentially tied with Democrats in that district. A GOP pollster and a Democratic pollster both estimated that it’s a 50-50 race in the district.
In the 10th Congressional District in the San Bernadino Mountains, which is about the same size as the 10th District but is heavily Democratic, the Democratic lead over Republican Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was between four and five percentage points in each poll, well within poll’s margin of error.
In the 2nd District of the East Bay, where Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is up for re-election this year with the support of President Trump and former GOP Rep. Tom McClintock, there was essentially no difference between the two polls and neither pollster had the sample size to detect a difference.
In the 22nd Congressional District in the Los Angeles area, where Republican Assemblywoman Michelle Du three-time was elected to the Assembly in 2018 as a Democrat, there are essentially no differences between the two polls in the district, but both surveysters had a small